Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, described the July retail sales as a perfect V-shaped recovery, but cautioned it would not last unless more aid gets to individuals and cities and states. But they also say that could be threatened if Congress does not help with another stimulus package. It’s the economy Still, economists expect to see a strong rebound in the third quarter, and are anticipating about about a 20% jump in third-quarter growth. There’s going to be less air going into the balloon.” “Not the binary outcome of whether there’s a deal or no deal. “What they’re not grasping is any deal, any extension of unemployment benefits, is going to be smaller than it was, and the rate of change should be the most important thing investors focus on,” he said. “I think the market is in suspended animation of believing there will be a magical deal.” Boockvar said he expects a deal ultimately, but the impact is not likely to be as big as the last round of funding.
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“I think it will cross over a line where they care,” he said. Peter Boockvar, chief investment strategist at Bleakley Advisory Group, said the market could have a wakeup call at some point that the stimulus package has not been approved. He also said it is important that progress continue against the spread of Covid-19, as the economy continues to reopen. Hogan said he expects stocks to tread sideways during the dog days of August, but they could begin to react negatively to the election in September. The S&P 500 reached an all-time high of 3,393 on Feb. Some technical analysts say the market may pull back around the high, to allow it to consolidate gains before moving higher into the end of the year. “It feels like we need more action from Congress, and the concern is the longer we wait, the better the data gets and the less impactful the next round of stimulus will be.” “The juxtaposition of getting more fiscal stimulus and better data has paralyzed us in our tracks … we’ve seen this sideways action,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Alliance. July’s retail sales, for example, climbed to a record level and recovered to pre-pandemic levels. There is a concern that Congress will not be convinced to provide a big enough package when it does get to work again on the next stimulus round because recent economic reports look stronger. Investors had been watching efforts by Congress to agree to a new stimulus package, but talks have failed and the Senate has gone on recess. There are minutes from the Fed’s last meeting, released Wednesday, and housing data, including starts Tuesday and existing sales Friday. In the coming week, there are some major retailers reporting earnings, including Walmart, Home Depot and Target, but the season is mostly over and the market is entering a quiet period. Stocks were higher in the past week, and the S&P 500 flirted with record levels it set in February. Stocks are ignoring the lack of a stimulus package from Congress, but that could change - (Source) Stocks could hang at record levels but gains may be capped until Congress agrees to a new stimulus package to help the economy and the millions of unemployed Americans.
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